Oil and USD 101

A common mistake by market participants when thinking about the USD is to say “Well oil is denominated in USD”. While ostensibly true this misses the point on how supply and demand in the oil market impact currencies.

So when a buyer of oil wants oil if they have USD they hand the USD to the seller and now the seller has USD. (This is the US buyer case).

When a buyer of oil has another currency say GBP they sell their GBP and buy USD then they hand the seller USD and now the seller has USD and someone else holds GBP from the currency transaction. This flow is the common understanding of how the USD strengthens with oil.

However, we forgot the seller. Global sellers of oil have their own philosophy regarding currency balance. When he gets a new USD from selling oil they now are overweight USD relative to their prior portfolio. They may buy GBP offsetting the GBP oil buyer currency trade.

The point is one needs to see what country has a growing demand for oil and what country is selling the oil and what is that country’s currency holdings benchmark. We should assume that the selling country benchmark doesn’t change rapidly and they reinvest the USD in their basket.

By following this process at a more granular level one can better understand the currency dynamics at play. It’s hard but it’s better than one rule like oil rises are pro USD.

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